How ZF Brandenburg Plotted Life After Combustion Gearboxes
ZF’s Brandenburg plant makes manual and dual-clutch gearboxes, about 120 000 units a year. As demand shifts to electric drives the work will dry up. In twelve months we ran the Business Transformation Navigator with staff and external experts. Together we shaped three new business models and built full investment cases, giving the site a clear future path and protecting jobs.
The Challenge
ZF Friedrichshafen AG is a global technology group specializing in mobility solutions for passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and industrial applications. One of its key sites, ZF Getriebe Brandenburg in Brandenburg an der Havel, has traditionally focused on producing manual and dual-clutch transmissions for passenger cars, manufacturing around 120,000 units annually. However, as the automotive sector moves steadily toward electrification and hybridization, demand for conventional gear systems is changing rapidly. To secure the future of the Brandenburg plant—currently fully dependent on combustion-engine transmissions—ZF embarked on a transformation project aimed at diversifying into new products, services, or even entirely new markets.
Rising CO₂ regulations, a pivot toward e-mobility, and the planned phase-out of certain transmission lines highlighted the urgency: if ZF failed to expand or redefine its business model, the site risked losing its strategic relevance. This challenge was heightened by internal restructuring plans that include reducing up to 850 full-time positions by 2028 unless sustainable alternatives could be found. With limited time before existing transmission volumes taper off, ZF sought external expertise and a structured innovation process to identify fresh business opportunities.
To tackle these issues, the company partnered with theBMI Lab and deployed the Business Transformation Navigator, a multi-phase approach designed to uncover viable new business fields and guide a production site through large-scale change. The method focuses on three main success factors—broad participation, an early start, and the use of external knowledge—as illustrated in Figure 1. By involving employees from various hierarchical levels, along with external experts, ZF ensured that potential ideas would account for both internal competencies and future market trends.
Our Approach
In line with the Navigator’s principles, the project began in 2023 with a Start/Setup Phase. This step established strategic guardrails, formed a dedicated project team, and clarified responsibilities. ZF set a clear goal: develop credible business and investment cases for new markets, aligned with group-level sustainability and innovation guidelines.
Analyzing and ideating: charting a path beyond combustion
Following the setup, the team entered an AnalysisPhase (running until the end of May 2023). During this period, ZF performed a deep dive into the plant’s existing skill sets—particularly its strengths in precision manufacturing and prototyping. At the same time, external trends such as the rise of e-drives, industrial automation, and sustainability demands were mapped out. By blending these two perspectives, the team identified a broad“opportunity spaces” for possible new business fields.
With this groundwork in place, the project progressed to an Ideation Phase (mid-May to late September 2023). Leveraging BusinessModel Navigator techniques and structured workshops, participants co-created multiple initial concepts. As shown in Figure 2, workshops combined mega-trend analysis, interviews, and brainstorming sessions. A participatory approach ensured that employees felt ownership of the transformation process, contributing real-world insights alongside external expert input.
Refining the roadmap: detailed business and investment cases
By the end of the Ideation Phase, ZF had distilled its ideas into a shortlist of high-potential business models. The next step—theDetailing Phase (October to early December 2023)—focused on turning these concepts into robust, decision-ready proposals. Each proposal included:
- Market analysisand feasibility: Potential revenue streams, target customer segments, andunique selling points
- Technical andoperational requirements: Estimated modifications to the productionenvironment, additional skill sets, and investment needs
- Financialmodeling: Comprehensive projections of initial capital expenditures,operational costs, and break-even timelines
The output was a fully integrated financial and strategic assessment, which could be presented to ZF’s corporate committees for final approval. As depicted in Figure 3, the Business Transformation Navigator process yielded not only new “future concepts” but also a clearer path to implementing them.
Embedding a culture of innovation and co-creation
One standout feature of this project was its strong focus on employee engagement. Beyond generating business ideas, the workshops aimed to foster an innovation culture at all levels of the organization. For instance, cross-departmental teams worked in agile sprints, learning to apply creative methodologies like the Business Model Navigator. This collaborative environment equipped participants with skills that will outlast the immediate transformation, encouraging a mindset of continuous improvement.
The approach also integrated external knowledge by drawing on a network of stakeholders, including industry specialists, regional development agencies, and potential investors. This open, participatory style is represented in Figure 4, which outlines how different project stages—from discovering “transformation needs” to finalizing “future-proof business models”—require both company-wide and cross-functional collaboration.
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Impact
By December 2023, ZF had identified three promising business models, each aligned with the Brandenburg plant’s core strengths.
Market testing and preliminary financial evaluations suggest these avenues could stabilize employment levels at the plant and possibly attract new investments. With each concept backed by a comprehensive business and investment case, ZF is now evaluating internal resources and possible external partnerships.
Prof. Dr. Christoph Wecht
Key Learnings & Next Steps
Several insights stand out from ZF’s transformation journey:
- Early Engagement:
Starting the process well before production declines allowed the company to leverage existing staff expertise while they were still motivated and well-acquainted with current production capabilities.
- Strong Employee Involvement:
Actively including operators, technicians, and other frontline employees in brainstorming yielded practical ideas rooted in day-to-day realities.
- External Expertise:
Collaborations with external specialists and the integration of a broader network expanded the team’s horizon, bringing in fresh perspectives on how to repurpose or upgrade existing capabilities.
- Iterative Approach:
By iterating through idea generation, testing, and refinement, ZF ensured that each concept was both innovative and operationally viable.
Crucially, the success of the initiative hinged on building trust—both with management and the workforce—by demonstrating that new business models could mitigate the need for job cuts and offer a genuine path to future viability.
Delivering impact through transformation
By using the Business Transformation Navigator and the Business Model Navigator, ZF Getriebe Brandenburg has taken concrete steps to future-proof its operations in a rapidly evolving automotive landscape. The structured yet flexible approach provided a solid framework for discovering new revenue streams, reducing reliance on declining transmission volumes, and maintaining a skilled workforce in the region.
This project underscores how an established production site can evolve by systematically combining internal capabilities with external trends and strategic foresight. As ZF moves forward with pilot implementations and potential partner dialogues, the Brandenburg facility stands as a case in point for proactive transformation—an example that may well be replicated across other ZF locations and beyond.
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